Posts Tagged ‘mathematics’

Forex Trading – Why a Complicated Mathematical Formula is Not the Way to Succeed

Thursday, November 27th, 2008

You see a lot of Forex trading systems online that claim that there complicated mathematical formulas can beat the market but this is not true for one simple reason.

Fact – Forex markets do not move to a mathematical theory which you can predict forex price movement with and the rest of this article will explain why, give the proof and show you a better way to win with your forex trading strategy.

You will hear a lot of traders telling you maths works and that gurus theories such as Gann, Elliot and Fibonacci are scientific and mathematical ways of doing trading but the definition of a mathematical theory is:

It works ALL the time not now and again!

The theories just mentioned don’t and neither do any other mathematical theories – its rubbish to say forex markets move to mathematics.

You often see systems sold that say they work to complex mathematical algorithms or were devised by a wiz kid – but look at the track record and what do you see?

A made up track record in hindsight, using closing data and knowing everything that happened! Well that’s not hard to do, anyone can make a profit if they know tomorrows price today but that’s not real life. Real life is – trading without knowing the price.

The track records are simply bent to show a profit, on the data segment studied and the more it’s bent, the more unlikely it is to work in real time, as no two segments of data ever repeat exactly.

If You Want to Win at Forex Remember this:

The markets don’t move to some mystical law that repeats exactly – but they do move on probability and by trading high odds set ups, you may not win every time but you will win more than you lose and with sound money management you can win long term.

The key is to use a simple odds based method, as simple systems always work best, as they have fewer elements to break in the brutal world that is forex trading.

Think About this key Point

In 100 years despite all the advances in computers, forecasting and speed of communications, we have seen no increase in the number of winning traders and this goes to show that complicated mathematics and fancy theories do not increase the odds of success.

A Simple Way to Succeed

Success in forex trading is dependant on a simple robust forex trading system, combined with discipline and sound money management; this has always been so and always will be.

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9 Common Forex Trading Orders – Use Them To Protect Profit And Prevent Loss

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

When trading forex, there are several order types that the retail trader can place in the 4x place to protect themselves from adverse market conditions and to capitalize on opportunities that the market often provide. We will start with the basic orders that should be available in any trading platform. For beginners, you should keep to the simple types until you get comfortable with your trading platform. Never force yourself to take any trade for the sake of playing with order types.

It can be said that all orders in the market place boils down to Buy or Sell orders. Remember that when trading currency pairs you are selling one currency and simultaneously buying another. Here are some of the common order types:

(1) Buy Order – Place this order when you anticipate that the market will rise. Often, you have to provide some parameters with your buy order. For instance, do you want to buy the currency pair at the price it 4x currently trading at, or do you have a particular price in mind? What if your order cannot be filled at the price you are specifying, what price range is comfortable to you? This is called slippage. For example, the GBP/USD is trading at 2.0190 and you anticipate that it will go up higher; you can place a buy order to buy at 2.0190. However, there is no guarantee that you will get in at that price, many brokers will require that you specify a slippage. Continuing with our example, suppose, you are comfortable buying as low as 2.0185 or at most at 2.0195, then you would specify a slippage of 5 pips. This is for your protection. Suppose just before your order becomes active, their is a news event, that makes GBP/USD to drop down 50 pips, are you still willing to buy? – maybe the trend has now changed downwards, your answer may be no. In addition, you must specify the time range when the order will be active. Your buy entry price should be dictated by your trading strategy or system.

(2) Sell Order – Place this order when you anticipate that the market will fall. Sell order have the same kinds of parameters we discussed under Buy Order.

(3) Market Order – You want to get in or out of the market at the current prevailing price. Execution is typically guaranteed, but price is not. A market order ensures that you will get into or out of the market.

(4) Limit Order – An instruction to execute an order if a market moves to a more favorable level (i.e. an instruction to buy if a market goes down to a specified level or to sell if a market goes up to a specified level. Execution is typically not guaranteed. Your broker will use their “best efforts” to get your order filled. This order can be used to enter or exit a position.

(5) Stop Order – An instruction to execute an order if a market moves to a less favorable level (i.e. an instruction to buy if a market goes down to a specified level, or to sell if a market goes up to a specified level. A Stop Order is often placed to put a cap on the potential loss on an existing position; which is why Stop Orders are sometimes called Stop-loss Orders. Never trade without placing a Stop-loss order. A trade you think has all the right ingredient for success may turn into a fat loss right before your eyes. Always protect yourself so that you can be alive to trade another day.

(6) Trailing Stop Order – A trailing stop order is similar to Stop Loss order. The only difference is that you are already in profit and you want to protect your profit. Trailing Stop Order then allows you to configure your stop order to continue to follow the price movement in real-time by specifying the distance in pips you would like your stop to move. For example, you have a long USD/JPY position, which you bought at 111.50 and you set a Stop Order to sell USD/JPY at 111.10, in case USD/JPY starts to fall. This Stop Order will close your position with a 40-pip loss if USD/JPY drops to 111.10. However, suppose USD/JPY moved up to
111.90. You can move your Stop Order to sell at 111.70 which will luck in a profit of 20 pips for you in case USD/JPY were to stop its upward movement.

(7) Good till Canceled Order (GTC) – As mentioned earlier, when you place an Order, you must specify for how long the Order is to be valid. The GTC Order is a very common type of Order; it remains valid, 24 hours a day, until you cancel it, or it is executed. It is the trader’s responsibility, not the dealers, to remember there is an open order.

(8) Day Orders – Day Orders are good until 23:00 CET time.

(9) Order Cancels Order (OCO) – Also known as One Cancels Other. After entering the market, a limit order to protect profits, and a stop-loss order to limit losses can be placed. When either the limit or the stop order is executed, it will cancel the other order automatically. For example, you sold EUR/USD at 1.2290, looking for a short-term move to 1.2260. However you decide that if EUR/USD moves above 1.2310 you want to cut your loss, therefore you put on a Limit Order to buy EUR/USD at 1.2260, and a Stop Order to buy EUR/USD at 1.2310 on an OCO basis. This order will close your position with a 30-pip profit if Limit Order is reached first or with a 20-pip loss if Stop Order is reached first. Once one of the orders is executed, the second order is automatically cancelled.

There are other types of Orders available to traders. However, keeping your trading simple is perhaps one of the best secrets of success in forex trading. Making money is what matters, not how complex your order structure is. A rule of thumb is that if you do not understand what the order you are placing really mean, do not place it. It can hurt you really badly.

Professor Sunmonu is a Professor Of Mathematics at York College. His forex trading blog can be found at http://www.FrxBank.com

Trading Algorithms – Autopilot Algo Trading Reveals the Forex Tracer

Monday, October 27th, 2008

Trading Algorithms are relatively new to the Forex Market and there are a few products on the market which now incorporate these Algo trading detection mathematics into their software. One of these is the New Forex Tracer. Released on to the market in June 2008 this new software comes with the following trading system set up.

A sophisticated strategy developed to analyze currency markets, it combines break out systems with an indicator based system to confirm the market and is analyzed and set up the way it should be. A risk management tool, that calculates the amount of lots related to the risk associated with each trade and shields against excessive losses and margin calls.

A market engine strategy where an automatic engine enters the market as safely as possible, which through its algorithms protects the trade from unpredictable behavior and/or the brokers false doings. A set of money management tools that exit each trade as safely as possible to make the most of multiple trades.

Forex Tracer also trades their system live so traders who use the algorithm trading software can publish their live trades online. The Forex Tracer also runs a Blog where traders offer there day to day trading stats from up to 11 currency pairs available within this Algo trading software.

The Foreign Exchange Market is a relatively new trading platform and as this unpredictable market continues to be sourced and scalped with difficulty, only a few Forex Algorithm Trading Products have been released on to the market.

For beginners wanting to get ahead in this market it is strongly advised you trade on a play account before you get involved for real.

You can put this system to the test on a Demo account. You can do that here at http://www.forextracertrading.com which allows you to trade with play money, so you won’t be risking a penny. After you’ve tried, tested and retested, you can then open your real account where you can collect $100 and start trading on Autopilot immediately. A Final Note for Beginners: Stay focussed, be extremely disciplined, and you will succeed.